Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 3.654692 3.994437 4.389972 4.895739 5.543921 6.377481 7.592877
2025-01-12 3.112766 3.500997 3.984597 4.659565 5.635148 7.121918 9.965056
2025-01-19 2.823418 3.232998 3.765991 4.556569 5.809760 8.031449 13.866720
2025-01-26 2.698267 3.144607 3.751629 4.712678 6.410657 10.122119 29.676207
2025-02-02 2.630634 3.117571 3.808953 4.980344 7.326697 14.291073 NaN
2025-02-09 2.518923 3.014102 3.735221 5.009360 7.789485 18.628546 NaN
2025-02-16 2.431565 2.935076 3.685595 5.065915 8.356238 27.185754 NaN
2025-02-23 2.304942 2.788433 3.513446 4.861021 8.153152 29.779726 NaN
2025-03-02 2.237255 2.723233 3.464220 4.883342 8.611803 52.192013 NaN
2025-03-09 2.170663 2.654645 3.402162 4.868182 8.963473 156.829780 NaN
2025-03-16 2.092617 2.564096 3.296145 4.746042 8.905054 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.061776 2.542990 3.303924 4.864523 9.809029 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.979317 2.440984 3.170761 4.666465 9.395971 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.901250 2.343108 3.040241 4.463782 8.916138 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.845933 2.278153 2.962776 4.371508 8.879235 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.830428 2.273740 2.988870 4.514544 9.990749 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.828427 2.289964 3.052102 4.758215 12.054148 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.797845 2.259104 3.028060 4.784551 12.947376 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.772230 2.234956 3.014458 4.835817 14.208069 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.720481 2.166722 2.915462 4.649800 13.221591 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.695485 2.141024 2.894490 4.670104 14.190987 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.668081 2.110359 2.862411 4.656315 14.885396 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.631354 2.063342 2.797320 4.545057 14.420684 NaN NaN